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Link to Nutrien's Weather Forecast Maps --> https://ag-wx.com/national.html
Link to Nutrien's Recent Precipitation Maps --> https://ag-wx.com/precip_maps.html
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Multi-Model Recap of Fall Weather Outlook
The first panel below shows the latest forecast of precipitation anomalies for Oct-Nov-Dec 2022 from the CPC, NMME, and ECMWF. All three modeling systems are showing very similar outlooks by favoring drier conditions across the Southern Plains, South, MidSouth, Southeast, East Coast and parts of the Midwest. They all agree on an early and wetter-than-normal start to the wet season across the Pacific Northwest.
A couple of things to consider:
- Fall is a transition season which often leads to more frequent low-pressure systems traversing the US. This year, it appears that a preferred path will stay a bit farther north than normal concentrating the wetter weather from the Pacific Northwest through the Northern Plains.
- October can be a busy month for tropical cyclones. Should one develop or track through the Gulf of Mexico or approach the US from the Southeast, heavy rains will wipe out any possibility of a drier fall.
- If a subtropical branch of the jet stream forms at anytime over the next 4 months, the low-pressure system track will sink much farther south and the likelihood of a drier fall for harvest will quickly fade. Given the dominance of La Niña, the chances of this happening are small.
The 2nd graphic in this section shows the latest forecast probabilities for La Niña (blue), Neutral (grey), and El Niño (red) through the next 11-months from Columbia University. There remains a lot of uncertainty on how long La Niña will last through winter 2022-23